We are in the Precambrian Era of Micro-Mobility

6 min readJan 7, 2020

The last decade has seen a rise of micro-mobility/ “last-mile” solutions. And it makes sense. With cities becoming more densely populated, rising gas prices, and parking nightmares, many folks want to ditch their traditional four wheels in favor of something more convenient. However, the path forward is complex and it requires thoughtful planning from both the private and public sectors.

In this article, I will look at three main things: (1) What the landscape looks like today; (2) The potential of a Micro-Mobility Precambrian Explosion; (3) The ideal form factor; and (4) How to properly incorporate these new technologies into our urban areas.

The Landscape

Bird, Lime, Scoot, Wheelz, Skip, Spin, Jump, Boosted, GenZe, Super 73, Motivate, and a myriad of other companies are popping up on a seemingly daily basis. This explosion of companies is fueled by the massive capital investments from major Venture Capital firms, all betting on their potential unicorn to dominate the space. According to Mckinsey, “Stakeholders have invested more than $5.7 billion in micro-mobility startups since 2015” and estimate the global market to be between $300B and $500B. While the amount of money poured into the space is staggering, the investment momentum has slowed down. Now is the time for each incumbent to implement its perceived competitive advantage to dominate the market. Over the course of the next year, I believe we will see many firms going belly-up or, more likely, get acquired by more established players as expansion-through-acquisition.

Skip thinks they will win with their easy UX/UI. Uber and Lyft are banking on their massive networks established by their primary businesses to rapidly grow their acquisitions and investments (see Jump, Lime, and Motivate). Boosted believes people want to own, not rent. Meanwhile, big players like Bosch and Segway Ninebot are building manufacturing economies of scale so that they can rule by low price and limitless supply.

Regardless of who you agree with and your preferred philosophy, the underlying tech is “there” from an engineering perspective. From a business standpoint, the major players will simply draft off each other based on the strategies that work the best. The problem is that most hardware on the market sucks and the products themselves are not compelling. The thing that will move the needle in terms of user adoption/demand will come down to the user experience.

The Precambrian Era and the Micro-Mobility Explosion

From around 4.6 billion years ago until 541 million years ago, life was simple. I mean literally. The organisms on the planet were learning to navigate the nitrogen and CO2 rich environment and figure out how to survive in the process. Then, when all the pieces aligned in the right way, the planet went into overdrive, giving rise to an astounding number of species as they all competed and vied for dominance in their brave new world. (Note: there are a thousand biologists and paleontologists who are screaming at my oversimplification. Deal with it, scientists. I’m making an analogy).

I often think back to the era of the late 90s/early 2000s when we were in a similar situation with cellphones. Motorola’s Razr, T-Mobile’s Sidekick, Palm’s Trio, Blackberry’s Curve and the Nokia 3310 (#snake) were all trying to find the form factor that merged phone, camera, internet, and email into a seamless tool.

And then the iPhone came out.

Immediately, everyone realized that this was the right solution and everything since that date has been a refinement of that 2007 design. This gave rise to entirely new industries that were unlocked because of this simple form factor. Empires have risen, marriages have happened; and TV shows have been binged because we now have a supercomputer in our pocket. We are at the same moment for micro-mobility, everyone seeking that perfect solution.

The Form Factor

I am not an engineer- if I were, I’d be in a garage trying to build my own competitor to enter into the coliseum of the micro-mobility revolution. However, as someone who has thrown a leg over most of these “solutions” and has worked with a number of startups trying to address this market, no one has it right yet.

As a former colleague noted, every current solution comes with its own set of problems:

Bicycles = exertion, danger
Scooters = unsafe, not “cool”
Motorcycles = too macho, not environmentally conscientious
Stand-up scooters = not super practical, accident-prone

The path forward needs to simultaneously combine all of the best aspects of these vehicles, yet simultaneously, establish a completely new segment.

With this in mind, if I had a magic wand, these are the specs:

Two wheels, maybe three for added stability
Sit-down
Can carry a passenger
Has space for a bag of groceries
Relatively lightweight (less than 150 lbs,)
30-mile range per charge
Top speed of 25 mph with amazing, grin-inducing acceleration
Ability to ride in a protected lane (formerly known as a bike lane)
Electric
Dockless and rechargeable in 2 hours
A horn, headlight, and indicators
Durable & reliable
Hyper accurate geo-fencing
If operated on a subscription model, less than $4 for 30 minutes of continuous riding

The combination of each of these elements makes the micro-mobility solution safer, easier to use, and downright, more fun. It also opens access to people of all types, all ages and all parts of the city. It is more than just the daily commute to get from point A to point B. Mobility, by definition, is the ability to freely move through the world. It connotes exploration, agency, and curiosity. Whoever is able to crack this nut will pave the way for the electric revolution we have all been pining for and will make mountains of cash in the process.

Success Relies on Municipal Implementation

Any step forward in urban mobility will require a multi-modal approach, a mixture of public transit, cars, and the last-mile-solutions listed above. While the points above are all well-and-good, all of this is moot if cities and policymakers do not take the lead to thoughtfully, yet radically, re-think the way in which we move through the city.

Especially in this budding industry, where the per-unit price point and short life span have not actualized on the promise of a “cheaper and more sustainable future”, it is the responsibility of cities to shepherd these companies through the valley of death. Micro-mobility is revamping the urban landscape in ways that would have typically taken cities massive amounts of taxpayer dollars to remedy, so it makes more sense for cities to open-the-kimono to these startups to understand the 10-year development vision.

Already, we see local governments trying to catch up with this new wave. Sometimes this is done in progressive ways, and other times, they are handled less gracefully. As a native Angeleno, it has been remarkable to watch the city starting to act as a laboratory testing out potential ways forward. It is easy to throw mud at the bureaucracy of any city, but LA has a few champions in this space (shout out to LADOT’s GM, Seleta Reynolds) who have been pushing conversations to incorporate startups into the landscape, rather than banning them sight unseen.

A Brighter Future

Please forgive the lofty conjectures I’m about to propose, but here is why nailing this matters. Done correctly, we will see the foundational infrastructure of our cities and, in turn, the fundamental interactions of urban economies, change as well. Economic development, resource inequality, public safety, and the general building blocks of modern society revolve around neighborhoods and land use. By changing the way we use our roads and move through our cities, we will change the ways we exist in our cities.

In the end, as a consumer, what you can do is ditch your car for a month and try the many different ways to get to work, to the grocery store and have a night on the town. Take notes on where your pain points are and give feedback to BOTH the startups and the cities. We will forge a path forward, one “last-mile” at a time.